St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3
- Jon GrayPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burleson homered to left center (375 feet).1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Fair odds
- TEX -132
- STL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +15 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +94 Elo | TEX 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.61st of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 21–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.