Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seager doubled to left, Heim scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Semien scored, Seager to second.0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -121
- SEA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 5.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +61 Elo | TEX 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 16–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.