Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Suárez homered to left, Crawford scored and Kelenic scored.3–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Suwinski walked, Reynolds scored on Sewald wild pitch.3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 43–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Reynolds tripled to right, McCutchen scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Kelenic doubled to left, Crawford scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Hedges hit sacrifice fly to left, Bae scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Raleigh homered to right (349 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (356 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −17 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 15–1317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.