Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Tucupita MarcanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung homered to center (417 feet), Lowe scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Semien singled to center, Grossman scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Marcano homered to center (419 feet), Suwinski scored, Santana scored and Hayes scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Santana singled to right, Reynolds scored, Suwinski to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Taveras scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Joe grounded out to shortstop, Hayes scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Fair odds
- PIT -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −20 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +28 Elo | TEX 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 11–1118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.