Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Tucupita MarcanoBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker singled to center, Carroll scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Walker doubled to left, Carroll scored and Marte scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 7Marte singled to right, Perdomo scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Walker scored on throwing error by pitcher Moreta.4–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Walker scored on throwing error by pitcher Moreta.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Marcano doubled to right, Castro scored and Joe scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Smith singled to center, Perdomo scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Herrera scored on Contreras wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Contreras.2–1
- 3Herrera scored on Contreras wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Contreras.2–1
- 2Joe scored on M. Kelly wild pitch.1–1
- 2Joe scored on M. Kelly wild pitch.1–1
- 1Carroll homered to right (368 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 11–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.