Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to right, Fletcher scored, Rivera to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Fletcher to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Laureano homered to left center (423 feet), Pérez scored and Peterson scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Carroll homered to center (405 feet), Perdomo scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Walker homered to left center (413 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -103
- OAK +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.3 – 5.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +25 Elo | ARI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 7.530th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −3.630th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 5–1930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–1 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.