Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Carlos PerezBatting1-1
- James KaprielianPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran homered to left center (438 feet), Jung scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Lowe homered to left (380 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Smith scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Lowe singled to left, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 64%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- OAK +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.2 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −40 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 2.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +103 Elo | TEX 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 7.530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.2 | Margin | −3.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 4–1630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–2 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.