Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kelenic tripled to left, Caballero scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Semien singled to left, Duran scored, J. Smith to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Crawford singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Crawford to second, Wong to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Heim doubled to right, Lowe scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Lowe doubled to center, Grossman scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Semien homered to left (404 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1France singled to left, Crawford scored on throwing error by left fielder Grossman, France out stretching at second.0–1
- 1France singled to left, Crawford scored on throwing error by left fielder Grossman, France out stretching at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +12 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 10–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.