Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meyers doubled to left, Peña scored and Tucker scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Kelenic reached on infield single to second, Rodríguez scored, France to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Rodríguez singled to center, Caballero scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Caballero doubled to left, Trammell scored and Crawford scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Crawford doubled to right, Hernández scored, Suárez scored and Raleigh scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Alvarez doubled to left, Meyers scored, Dubón thrown out at home.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Peña singled to left, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Tucker hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −8 | HOU: J.P. France (no track record yet) · SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +15 Elo | SEA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 7–1024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.