Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Kolten WongBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker homered to center (408 feet), J. Abreu scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Suárez singled to right, France scored, Kelenic to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Wong doubled to center, Raleigh scored, Trammell scored and Hernández scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Tucker scored, Peña caught stealing second, catcher to second.4–0
- 4Tucker scored, Peña caught stealing second, catcher to second.4–0
- 3Alvarez homered to center (408 feet), Meyers scored and Bregman scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +21 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.