Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- AJ PollockBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mason MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kelenic doubled to right, Caballero scored, France to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pollock homered to left (367 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Ruiz doubled to left, Kemp scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 47%
- Fair odds
- OAK -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 5.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | SEA: Bryce Miller (no track record yet) · OAK: Mason Miller: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 7.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −4.030th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–7 | Road vs home | 3–1229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.