Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Taylor TrammellBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RucinskiPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Wong singled to center, Crawford scored and Hernández scored, Trammell to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Trammell walked, Raleigh scored, Crawford to second, Hernández to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 43–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Kemp grounded out to second, Ruiz scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Ruiz tripled to right, Allen scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Trammell homered to left center (394 feet), Crawford scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Bleday homered to right (379 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Fair odds
- SEA -101
- OAK +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −14 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: Drew Rucinski: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 7.730th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −4.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 3–1429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.