Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Crawford singled to right, Hernández scored and Raleigh scored, Pollock to third.7–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 10Suárez homered to right center (386 feet), Caballero scored and Rodríguez scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pollock homered to center (410 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 11 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 10 : Ball 31–2
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Caballero singled to center, Pollock scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Kemp doubled to right, Ruiz scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Automatic Strike 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Ruiz doubled to left, Noda scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 47%
- Fair odds
- OAK -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 7.730th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −3.930th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 3–1329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.