Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4
- Brandon BielakPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker singled to center, J. Abreu scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Kelenic scored, Hernández to second, Suárez to third.0–3
- 5Kelenic scored, Hernández to second, Suárez to third.0–3
- 3Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, Raleigh safe at second on error.0–2
- 3Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, Raleigh safe at second on error.0–2
- 3Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, Raleigh safe at second on error.0–2
- 3Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, Raleigh safe at second on error.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Rodríguez homered to center (454 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −1 | HOU: Brandon Bielak (no track record yet) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–5 | Road vs home | 8–1021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.