Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Drury homered to center (409 feet).10–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–0
- 9Semien walked, Duran scored, Jankowski to second, Taveras to third.10–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 410–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 410–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 310–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 9Jankowski singled to right, Heim scored, Taveras to second, Duran to third.9–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
- 9Heim reached on infield single to shortstop, García scored and Jung scored.8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 9García singled to center, Lowe scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 9Lowe singled to center, Thompson scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 9Grossman reached on infield single to second, Jankowski scored.4–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Semien reached on infield single to third, Taveras scored, Jankowski to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Jankowski singled to center, Heim scored, Taveras to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 50%
- Fair odds
- LAA -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +2 Elo | LAA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.2 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 9–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–1 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.