Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching2.1 IP, 10 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Goldschmidt doubled to right, Edman scored and Nootbaar scored.11–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 4Edman homered to right (395 feet), Contreras scored and Carlson scored.11–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 211–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 4Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to center, Lamb scored, Ward to third.11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 3Neto singled to center, Rengifo scored and Thaiss scored, Phillips to second.10–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 3Phillips singled to left, Lamb scored, Rengifo to second, Thaiss to third.8–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 3Thaiss singled to right, Rendon scored, Lamb to second.7–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Renfroe scored, Rendon to third.6–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 35–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Lamb singled to right, Ohtani scored, Rendon to second, Renfroe to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Rengifo homered to right (362 feet), Ward scored and Thaiss scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- LAA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 5–1026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–0 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.