Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Neto singled to left, Phillips scored, Wallach to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Knizner grounded out to shortstop, O'Neill scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Ward homered to left (379 feet), Renfroe scored and Rendon scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Rendon singled to right, Trout scored, Renfroe to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −10 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 5–824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.