Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 13 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rendon singled to center, Ohtani scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 9Trout homered to left (367 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Lamb homered to right center (434 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Carlson homered to center (409 feet), Contreras scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Contreras doubled to right, Arenado scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Renfroe reached on infield single to third, Trout scored, Ohtani to second.3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Ohtani singled to right, Wallach scored, Trout to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Drury homered to left (382 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Gorman homered to center (418 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- LAA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +4 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +19 Elo | LAA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 5–925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.