Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Neto scored on Sborz wild pitch.4–5
- 10Neto scored on Sborz wild pitch.4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 9Rengifo singled to center, Wallach scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Wallach doubled to center, Drury scored and Ward scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Trout singled to right, Urshela scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 8Lowe singled to right, Jankowski scored, Grossman to second.4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Taveras scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Semien safe at third on error.3–0
- 4Taveras scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Semien safe at third on error.3–0
- 4Taveras scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Semien safe at third on error.3–0
- 4Taveras scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Semien safe at third on error.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Semien hit a ground rule double, Duran scored, Taveras to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3García hit sacrifice fly to left, Semien scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −9 | TEX: Dane Dunning (no track record yet) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +14 Elo | LAA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.