Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Angels- Anthony RendonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Renfroe homered to left (430 feet).16–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play16–8
- 7García homered to center (399 feet), Semien scored and Lowe scored.16–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play16–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking13–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–7
- 7Lowe singled to center, J. Smith scored, Semien to second.13–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–7
- 7Semien singled to left, Taveras scored, J. Smith to third.12–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 111–7
- 4Ohtani singled to center, Thaiss scored, Ward to second.11–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–6
- 4Ward singled to right, Urshela scored, Thaiss to third.11–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–5
- 4Taveras doubled to right, Heim scored and Jung scored.11–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 4Jung grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lowe scored on fielding error by third baseman Rendon and García scored on error by catcher Thaiss, Jung second.9–5
- 4Jung grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lowe scored on fielding error by third baseman Rendon and García scored on error by catcher Thaiss, Jung second.9–5
- 4Jung grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lowe scored on fielding error by third baseman Rendon and García scored on error by catcher Thaiss, Jung second.9–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 3Renfroe hit sacrifice fly to left, Trout scored, Ohtani to third.7–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 3Rendon singled to center, Ward scored, Ohtani to second, Trout to third.7–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3J. Smith homered to right (355 feet), Taveras scored.7–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- TEX +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −9 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 5.28th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 9–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.