Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pollock hit sacrifice fly to right, France scored, Kelenic to third.0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 7Murphy homered to left center (406 feet), Pollock scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3France singled to left, Murphy scored and Haggerty scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +10 Elo | SEA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.5 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 9–1121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.