Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-5
- JP SearsPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hicks homered to right (393 feet), Trevino scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6LeMahieu homered to left center (402 feet), Rizzo scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Torres homered to left (378 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Peterson walked, Aguilar scored, Kemp to second, Bleday to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 42–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Kemp reached on infield single to first, Rooker scored, Bleday to second, Aguilar to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Cabrera homered to left (339 feet), Bader scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -121
- OAK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.3 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −23 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 11–811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.