New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Harrison BaderBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Manuel MargotBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader singled to right, Torres scored and LeMahieu scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8LeMahieu doubled to right, Rizzo scored, Torres to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Margot doubled to left, Franco scored and Díaz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- NYY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +56 Elo | TB 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 6.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +3.51st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 18–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.