Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching8.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Zunino walked, Ramírez scored, Bell to second, Arias to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 43–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored and Rosario scored on error, Naylor safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Cabrera, Ramírez safe at third on error.2–2
- 9Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored and Rosario scored on error, Naylor safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Cabrera, Ramírez safe at third on error.2–2
- 9Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored and Rosario scored on error, Naylor safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Cabrera, Ramírez safe at third on error.2–2
- 9Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored and Rosario scored on error, Naylor safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Cabrera, Ramírez safe at third on error.2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3LeMahieu singled to center, Rizzo scored, Torres to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Trevino homered to left center (425 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.