Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5
- Shane BieberPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Willie CalhounBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Trevino singled to center, Cabrera scored, Bauers to third.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Calhoun singled to left, Hicks scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Gonzalez singled to left, Straw scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Bauers homered to right (362 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Calhoun homered to right center (387 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Giménez singled to center, Ramírez scored, Bell to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Bell singled to right, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −14 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.