Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8LeMahieu singled to right, Volpe scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Calhoun homered to right (370 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Rizzo singled to left, Torres scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Volpe homered to right (345 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Giménez grounded out to first, Ramírez scored, Bell to second, Naylor to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Naylor doubled to right, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- CLE +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +23 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 9–815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.