New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Harrison BaderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Franco doubled to left, Díaz scored on fielding error by left fielder Bauers.4–5
- 7Franco doubled to left, Díaz scored on fielding error by left fielder Bauers.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Bader homered to left center (436 feet), Torres scored and LeMahieu scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Torres doubled to center, Rizzo scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Franco scored, Arozarena out at second.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Díaz homered to center (416 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Siri sacrificed into double play, right to catcher to shortstop to second to third, Paredes scored, Walls thrown out at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Arozarena homered to center (422 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- NYY +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −16 | NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Yonny Chirinos (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +44 Elo | TB 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 6.61st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +3.61st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 17–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.