Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Witt Jr. homered to center (434 feet), Bradley Jr. scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Fermin homered to left center (427 feet).5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 4Rooker doubled to center, Noda scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Noda tripled to right, Smith scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Bleday homered to right (370 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Ruiz singled to right, Bleday scored and Langeliers scored, Peterson to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Garcia doubled to center, Pasquantino scored, Perez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Fair odds
- KC -111
- OAK +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.2 – 5.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −19 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +8 Elo | KC 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.6 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.7 | Margin | −2.129th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 2–1530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.