Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.2 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 7Witt Jr. tripled to center, Isbel scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 7Isbel doubled to left, Massey scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 7Garcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Pratto scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (394 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Fair odds
- BAL -105
- KC +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.9 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +47 Elo | BAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 1–1330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.