Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías singled to left, Santander scored on error, Stowers to second, Stowers safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Olivares.11–7
- 8Urías singled to left, Santander scored on error, Stowers to second, Stowers safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Olivares.11–7
- 8Urías singled to left, Santander scored on error, Stowers to second, Stowers safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Olivares.11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–7
- 7Perez homered to left (419 feet), Pasquantino scored.10–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 110–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–5
- 7Pasquantino doubled to center, Garcia scored.10–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 6Perez homered to center (424 feet).10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 6Mateo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mountcastle scored, Santander out at second.10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Mountcastle doubled to center, Rutschman scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 6Rutschman doubled to left, Mullins scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 5Mountcastle homered to center (433 feet), Rutschman scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Mullins singled to left, Henderson scored and McCann scored, Mullins to second, Urías to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4McCann singled to left, Santander scored, Mateo to second.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 1–1230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.