Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to right, Massey scored, Bradley Jr. to second.13–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging13–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–9
- 9Frazier scored on Staumont wild pitch, Urías to third on wild pitch by Staumont.13–9
- 9Frazier scored on Staumont wild pitch, Urías to third on wild pitch by Staumont.13–9
- 9Urías hit a ground rule double, McKenna scored and Stowers scored, Frazier to third.12–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–9
- 8Urías singled to center, Frazier scored and Mateo scored.10–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 7Witt Jr. singled to right, Massey scored, Bradley Jr. to third.8–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 7Isbel reached on bunt single to first, Garcia scored, Massey to second.8–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–8
- 5Massey doubled to center, Pratto scored.8–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 4Pasquantino singled to left, Fermin scored.8–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 4Isbel homered to right center (418 feet).8–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 3Perez homered to right (372 feet), Witt Jr. scored.8–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 2–1330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.