Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Noda grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ruiz scored on error, Noda safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Pratto.12–8
- 9Noda grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ruiz scored on error, Noda safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Pratto.12–8
- 9Noda grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ruiz scored on error, Noda safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Pratto.12–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 211–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 111–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–8
- 8Kemp walked, Rooker scored on Taylor wild pitch, J. Diaz to second.11–8
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball 411–8
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 310–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 210–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 110–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–8
- 8Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to right, Noda scored, Rooker to third.10–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 39–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 7Dozier tripled to left, Pasquantino scored and Pratto scored.9–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–8
- 7Duffy hit sacrifice fly to right, Olivares scored.9–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 39–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 6Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Duffy scored.9–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 39–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Fair odds
- KC -115
- OAK +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.0 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +39 Elo | KC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.6 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.9 | Margin | −2.029th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 2–1430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.