New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Harrison BaderBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rays- Christian BethancourtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Paredes singled to right, B. Lowe scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 7Trevino grounded out to third, Bader scored.7–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 6Díaz grounded out to pitcher, Siri scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 6Bethancourt homered to center (418 feet), Paredes scored and Margot scored.6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Paredes hit a ground rule double, Ramírez scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Franco reached on infield single to second, Díaz scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres, Franco to second.6–2
- 5Franco reached on infield single to second, Díaz scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres, Franco to second.6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Siri homered to center (419 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Bader scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Torres doubled to right, Hicks scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Hicks doubled to left, Trevino scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- NYY +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −2 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Javy Guerra: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +34 Elo | TB 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 6.42nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +3.41st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 18–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.