Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mason MillerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Pratto scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pratto doubled to center, Melendez scored and Perez scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Garcia singled to center, Perez scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Laureano reached on infield single to second, Rooker scored, Laureano to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Perez homered to left center (462 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -111
- OAK +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.2 – 5.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | OAK: Mason Miller: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +17 Elo | KC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.5 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −2.129th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 2–1630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.