Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bleday homered to right (358 feet).3–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 5Volpe homered to center (419 feet), Torres scored, Higashioka scored and Cabrera scored.2–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–11
- 5LeMahieu homered to center (398 feet), Rizzo scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Rizzo singled to center, Judge scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Peterson homered to right (410 feet).2–4
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Pérez homered to left (360 feet).1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Bader homered to right center (362 feet), Rizzo scored and LeMahieu scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored, Rizzo to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Fair odds
- NYY -127
- OAK +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +75 Elo | NYY 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 30th of 307.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 13–87th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.