Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Drew RucinskiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge hit sacrifice fly to right, Volpe scored.5–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–10
- 8J. Diaz homered to left center (413 feet), Langeliers scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Bauers homered to center (420 feet), Bader scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7J. Diaz homered to left center (382 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Torres homered to left (367 feet), Rizzo scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4J. Diaz homered to left (388 feet).2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Bauers hit sacrifice fly to left, Torres scored, Bader to second.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Bader singled to center, Rizzo scored, Torres to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Torres singled to center, Judge scored, Rizzo to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Rizzo singled to right, Hicks scored, Judge to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Judge grounded into fielder's choice to third, Trevino scored, Hicks safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Peterson.1–1
- 3Judge grounded into fielder's choice to third, Trevino scored, Hicks safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Peterson.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Fair odds
- NYY -125
- OAK +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | OAK: Drew Rucinski: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +69 Elo | NYY 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.4 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 12–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.