Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rooker homered to left center (408 feet), Ruiz scored and Bleday scored.7–9
- 10Pitch 10 : Ball In Play7–9
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball 37–6
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10Ruiz singled to right, Allen scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 10Semien singled to right, J. Smith scored, García to second.7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 10García singled to left, Duran scored, J. Smith to third.6–5
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball 35–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 25–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 8Ruiz singled to center, Peterson scored, Allen to second.5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 6Grossman homered to right (365 feet).5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -107
- OAK +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +52 Elo | TEX 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.2 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 7.530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −3.730th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 3–1630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.