Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8García homered to left center (400 feet), Semien scored, Grossman scored and Lowe scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Grossman singled to center, Taveras scored, Semien to second.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Semien singled to center, Duran scored, Taveras to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Taveras grounded into fielder's choice to second, Heim scored, Thompson out at second, Duran to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Heim singled to center, García scored on error, Heim safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Ruiz.4–3
- 8Heim singled to center, García scored on error, Heim safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Ruiz.4–3
- 8Heim singled to center, García scored on error, Heim safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Ruiz.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Langeliers homered to left center (427 feet), Laureano scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3García singled to left, Semien scored, Lowe to second.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Langeliers reached on infield single to shortstop, Laureano scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Grossman homered to left (371 feet), Semien scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -107
- OAK +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | — | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | TEX +53 Elo | TEX 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.2 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 7.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −3.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 4–1730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–2 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.