Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Ruiz reached on infield single to shortstop, Laureano scored, Allen to second, Peterson to third.8–9
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 28–8
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 7Noda homered to center (424 feet), Rooker scored, A. Díaz scored and Pérez scored.8–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 7Moreno singled to left, Ahmed scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Ahmed doubled to center, Carroll scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Pérez singled to center, Rooker scored, A. Díaz to second.6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (413 feet), Rivera scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Rivera doubled to left, Fletcher scored and Marte scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Laureano homered to left center (402 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Allen homered to left (381 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- OAK +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.1 – 5.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −7 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +45 Elo | ARI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 7.530th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −3.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 4–1930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.