Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Jace PetersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RucinskiPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peterson homered to right center (409 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Carroll hit sacrifice fly to shortstop, Perdomo scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Ruiz singled to right, Allen scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (409 feet), Carroll scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Perdomo homered to right (368 feet), Fletcher scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -108
- OAK +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.2 – 5.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −13 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OAK: Drew Rucinski: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +71 Elo | ARI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 7.530th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −3.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 4–1830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.