Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jihwan BaeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Bae singled to right, Suwinski scored and Hayes scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Hayes singled to right, Reynolds scored, Suwinski to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Santana grounded into fielder's choice to second, McCutchen scored, Reynolds out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +34 Elo | BAL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 13–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.