Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski singled to right, McCutchen scored, Santana to third.3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Mullins homered to right (376 feet), Hays scored and Vavra scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Mountcastle singled to center, Rutschman scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Rutschman doubled to left, Mullins scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Joe homered to left (410 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Mountcastle scored on Moreta wild pitch, Frazier to second on wild pitch by Moreta.1–1
- 6Mountcastle scored on Moreta wild pitch, Frazier to second on wild pitch by Moreta.1–1
- 3Hayes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bae scored on throwing error by shortstop Mateo.1–0
- 3Hayes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bae scored on throwing error by shortstop Mateo.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +6 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +53 Elo | BAL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 11–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.