Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 12Harris II doubled to center, Albies scored, Ozuna to third.2–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Hilliard scored on Bautista wild pitch.2–2
- 10Hilliard scored on Bautista wild pitch.2–2
- 10Santander singled to right, Mullins scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Urías grounded out to shortstop, Hays scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Olson homered to center (413 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- BAL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +27 Elo | ATL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.46th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.