Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murphy homered to center (419 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Riley scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 7Mullins singled to center, Hays scored, Urías to third.9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 7Santander homered to right (397 feet), Henderson scored, Mateo scored and Rutschman scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Mateo sacrificed, McKenna scored, Mateo to second on throwing error by pitcher Fried, Henderson to third.4–1
- 7Mateo sacrificed, McKenna scored, Mateo to first on throwing error by pitcher Fried, Mateo to second, Henderson to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Mullins homered to right (390 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Santander homered to center (402 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Henderson grounded out to second, McKenna scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Murphy singled to center, Olson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- BAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +16 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 7–719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.