Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Kevin PillarBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pillar homered to left (405 feet), Riley scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Frazier grounded into fielder's choice to second, Santander scored, Henderson out at second.4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Santander doubled to center, Mountcastle scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to center, Grissom scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Rosario singled to left, Olson scored, Murphy to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Frazier singled to left, Mountcastle scored and Santander scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Ozuna homered to right (377 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +19 Elo | ATL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.