Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting2-4
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raley homered to right center (399 feet).3–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Franco sacrificed into double play, center to shortstop to second, Raley scored, Díaz thrown out at second, Mejía to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2J. Lowe homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 46%
- Fair odds
- BAL -103
- TB +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +2 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.3 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 9–43rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.