Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Walls homered to center (404 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored, Frazier to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Rutschman homered to right (407 feet), Mullins scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Mateo grounded out to second, Henderson scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Franco homered to center (396 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 45%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −11 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 9–56th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.