Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4
- Luis OrtizPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Baddoo scored on Ortiz wild pitch, Cabrera to second on wild pitch by Ortiz.0–4
- 3Baddoo scored on Ortiz wild pitch, Cabrera to second on wild pitch by Ortiz.0–4
- 3Torkelson scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ortiz, Baddoo picked off third.0–3
- 3Torkelson scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ortiz, Baddoo picked off third.0–3
- 1Torkelson doubled to left, Báez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Báez singled to right, Greene scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +12 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +42 Elo | DET 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.