Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5
- Joey WentzPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ibañez walked, Schoop scored, Maton to second, Torkelson to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 43–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Maton hit by pitch, Rogers scored, Torkelson to second, Schoop to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Baddoo doubled to left, Ibañez scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Báez singled to right, Greene scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodríguez scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Rodríguez singled to left, France scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Crawford scored on a balk, France to second on a balk.1–1
- 3Crawford scored on a balk, France to second on a balk.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Báez grounded out to shortstop, McKinstry scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- SEA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 8–919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.