Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene singled to right, Haase scored, McKinstry to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Ibañez homered to left (399 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Ramírez homered to left center (410 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Greene doubled to center, Ibañez scored, Haase thrown out at home.4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Maton doubled to right, McKinstry scored, Báez to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Báez singled to left, Haase scored, McKinstry to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3McKinstry reached on infield single to shortstop, Ibañez scored, Haase to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Ramírez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Kwan scored, Rosario out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +3 | DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +43 Elo | CLE 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–11 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.